MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR THIS AREA - 22nd of September
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2000
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0408 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NE AR...AND PARTS OF SE MO...NW MS...WRN TN INTO
EXTREME SW KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 784...
VALID 220908Z - 221015Z
NEW WW WILL BE ISSUED BY 10Z.
IN WAKE OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW LIFTING NORTHEAST
OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/WARMING IS
SPREADING THROUGH THE LOWER RED RIVER VALLEY AND THE ARKLATEX. THIS
IS CAPPING OFF RETURNING TONGUE OF VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY
LAYER FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CHARACTERIZED BY 70F+
SURFACE DEW POINTS. WHILE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BECOME
INHIBITED ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...END TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SLOWER IN
STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME SPREADING ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS ON NORTHERN FRINGE
OF RETURNING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...WHERE STORMS APPEAR BASED NEAR
ENOUGH TO THE SURFACE THAT RISK OF TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
LARGE...CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS AND STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK...BEFORE SLACKING OFF SOME
THROUGH MID MORNING.
..KERR.. 09/22/2006
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2004
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO... CENTRAL AND SRN IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 221749Z - 222015Z
ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT
1-2 HRS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MO AND POSSIBLY WCENTRAL IL. FURTHER
EAST...CONVECTIVE INITIATION/SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WAIT UNTIL
20Z ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SRN IL. A WW IS ANTICIPATED
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY 19Z.
LATEST VISIBLE SAT DATA SHOWS CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE ONLY 1-2
HRS AWAY ACROSS ECENTRAL/NERN MO AND WCENTRAL IL ALONG A
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...REINFORCED BY LOW CLOUD
COVER...EXTENDING FROM 50 W OF STL SSEWD TO NEAR POF. AS THIS
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD IT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
INITIATION. HOWEVER THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT IN THE WAKE AND
TO THE WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY SUFFICIENT HEATING AND LIMITED
REMAINING CINH ALONG WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND BROAD CONFLUENCE
SHOULD SUPPORTING DISCRETE ROTATING TSTMS MOVING NEWD FROM SWRN MO
/WW 787/ INTO ERN MO BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 19Z. STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR /30 KTS 0-1 KM PER REGIONAL PROFILER DATA/ ALONG WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG/ AS EVIDENT BY 16Z SGF SOUNDING ARE
EVIDENCE OF AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORING SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR DMGG TORNADOES. FURTHER NE...ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG CONFLUENCE AXIS/LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN OVER
CENTRAL IL IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. HOWEVER INSPECTION OF VISIBLE
SATELLITE DATA AND MODIFICATION OF 12Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATES
SUFFICIENT CINH /100 J/KG/ STILL EXISTS TO DELAY INITIATION AND SVR
THREAT IN THIS AREA UNTIL AFTER 20Z.
..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006
ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0255 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN IL/SWRN IND...WRN KY AND NWRN TN
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 221955Z - 222200Z
TORNADO WW IS POSSIBLE BY 22Z FOR THE AREA.
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE/SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DOUBLE WARM FRONT
STRUCTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH THE NRN MOST BOUNDARY EXTENDING
FROM NEAR FAM IN SERN MO EWD TO OWB IN WRN KY. THIS BOUNDARY HAS
BEEN REINFORCED RECENTLY BY ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION. FURTHER
SOUTH...THE MAIN WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM 10 N OF POF TO 35 NE OF
DYR IN NWRN TN. THIS BOUNDARY WAS LIFTING NWD AROUND 15 KTS INTO
NWRN TN AND SERN MO AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NWD INTO WRN KY AND
FAR SERN IL/SWRN IND OVER THE NEXT 1-3 HRS. AIRMASS BEHIND THE MAIN
WARM FRONT HAD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES VALUES AROUND
2500 J/KG AND VERY LITTLE CINH. SFC ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT GREATEST
PRESSURE FALLS /2 MB IN 2 HRS/ AND THUS STRONGEST LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WAS CENTERED OVER THE AREA. THIS IS ALSO SUBSTANTIATED BY
RECENT PAH VWP DATA WHICH SHOWS A STRONGLY CURVED LOW LEVEL
HODOGRAPH /40 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR/. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SVR WITHIN 1-2
HRS...AND MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DMGG TORNADOES. IF ISOLATED
SVR THUNDERSTORMS FAIL TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MAIN WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY BEFORE 22Z...THEN THE SVR THREAT AND NEED FOR A TORNADO
WATCH WOULD FOCUS ON A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OVER SERN MO AND
NCENTRAL AR THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 22Z.
..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006
ATTN...WFO...OHX...PAH...MEG...
36188922 36538923 38148866 38118806 37968714 37058747
35968796 36038851
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2008
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...THE MID MS VALLEY SWD INTO THE MID SOUTH AND SRN
LOW PLAINS
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 786...787...788...
VALID 222000Z - 222130Z
THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS REGION THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AN ENHANCED THREAT OF POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES EXISTS ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MO INTO NRN AR...FAR
WRN TN AND PERHAPS FAR ERN OK.
AS OF 1945Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS
OVER FRANKLIN...CRAWFORD...WASHINGTON...IRON AND REYNOLDS COUNTIES
MO NEAR AND JUST TO THE NE OF WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM N OF
SGF TO JUST N OF POF INTO NWRN TN /N OF DYR/. ANOTHER INTENSE STORM
CLUSTER /WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/ WAS LOCATED OVER FULTON...IZARD
AND STONE COUNTIES IN N-CNTRL AR.
MODIFICATION OF EARLY AFTERNOON OBSERVED SOUNDINGS FROM LIT AND SGF
INDICATES THAT AIR MASS ACROSS SRN MO...AR INTO ERN OK HAS BECOME
MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-3000 J/KG.
ACCOMPANYING WIND PROFILES INDICATED LONG HODOGRAPHS WITH 45-60 KTS
OF 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2. THIS LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR IS LIKELY LARGER INVOF WARM FRONT OVER SRN MO WHERE 0-1 KM SRH
LIKELY EXCEEDS 250-300 M2/S2. DESPITE THE ABSENCE OF ANY
APPRECIABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...THIS COMBINATION OF
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF STRONG TORNADOES. THIS THREAT IS GREATEST
ACROSS NRN AR INTO SRN MO.
EXPECT OTHER STORMS CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING OVER NWRN AR INTO SWRN MO
TO EVOLVE SIMILARLY...WITH ADDITIONAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT LIKELY
FROM NEAR LIT NEWD TO NEAR DYR WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
..MEAD.. 09/22/2006
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...SRN/CENTRAL...WRN KY AND SWRN IND
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 788...790...
VALID 222208Z - 230015Z
CLUSTER OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS /SOME LIKELY SIGNIFICANT/ WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 40 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF WW
788 /SCENTRAL/SERN MO AND SRN IL/ AND ACROSS WRN KY AND EVENTUALLY
SWRN IND /WW 790/ OVER THE NEXT 2 HRS.
RECENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM STL AND PAH INDICATED SEVERAL STRONGLY
ROTATING SUPERCELLS. ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION REMAINS EXTREMELY
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES /0-1 KM SRH UP TO 350 M2/S2/ WITH A FEW DMGG
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION OF SIG TORNADO POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE OVER FAR WRN KY AND SRN IL WHERE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 350 M2/S2 AND PRESSURE FALLS /2-3 MB/2 HR/
EXIST. AS SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH WRN
KY AND INTO SWRN IND/SERN IL...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR MVN TO SOUTH OF
EVV TO NEAR BWG. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD
AND SUPPORT A DEVELOPING TORNADO THREAT INTO SERN IL/SWRN IND IN THE
NEXT FEW HRS AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. HOWEVER THE SVR THREAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN LIMITED INTO CENTRAL KY AND THE REST OF SRN
IND.
FURTHER NORTH...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED SHORT TERM THREAT OF
SVR WEATHER IN THE IMMEDIATE STL AREA/ECENTRAL MO...AS VIS SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS NO APPARENT TOWERING CU ALONG THE SFC CONFLUENCE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MO. HOWEVER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONFLUENCE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
IL. SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 250 M2/S2/
WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL.
..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006
ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO AND WRN/SRN IL...WRN AND CENTRAL KY AND SRN
IND
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 788...790...
VALID 230050Z - 230245Z
THREAT FOR SVR TSTMS /INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS/ WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF WW 788 AND INTO WW 790 FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. HOWEVER
AFTER 02Z...MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF WW 788 WILL LIKELY SEE
SUFFICIENT STABILIZATION THAT THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AND
A NEW WW IN THIS AREA IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER FURTHER SOUTH...A FEW
SUPERCELLS /INCLUDING LEFT SPLITTING STORMS/ MAY MOVE INTO SRN
PORTIONS OF WW 788 FROM WW/S 792 AND 787 OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
THEREFORE THIS IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A REPLACEMENT WW OVER SERN
MO BEFORE 02Z.
LATEST VWP DATA INDICATED A LOW LEVEL JET WAS ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS
WRN INTO NRN AR. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL THEREFORE
REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NRN AR /SOUTH
OF WW 788/. HOWEVER STRONG STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LEFT SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. SOME OF THESE MAY MOVE INTO SRN
MO BEYOND 02Z SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. FURTHER
NORTH...CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS AND SUPERCELLS SOUTH OF THE STL
METRO AREA SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO WW 790 BY AROUND 02Z. CONVECTIVE
LINE /WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL IL. WEAKENING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT
OVERALL TORNADO/SVR WIND THREAT IN THIS PORTION OF WW 788 BEYOND
02Z.
FURTHER EAST...SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HRS OVER WRN KY AND SERN IL/SWRN IND /WW 790/ AS CONVECTIVE
LINES/CELLS MOVES OUT OF SWRN IL AND SERN MO. WITH SFC WARM FRONT
IN THE REGION...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A LOW LEVEL JET
INTENSIFYING...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND TORNADO THREAT WILL
CONTINUE. LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER CENTRAL KY/FAR SRN IND IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AND THUS A NEW WW EAST OF WW 790 IS
NOT EXPECTED.
..CROSBIE.. 09/23/2006
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2018
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...SWRN/SCNTRL MO...NRN/WRN AR AND W TN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 792...794...
VALID 230323Z - 230530Z
03Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SITUATED FROM
THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RVRS SWWD TO ALONG THE AR/MO BORDER THEN
INTO ECNTRL OK VCNTY KMKO. THE DRYLINE WAS RETREATING INTO CNTRL
AND SWRN OK.
WEAKEST INHIBITION APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS SERN OK AND IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR VCNTY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NRN TWO ROWS OF
COUNTIES IN AR. WITHIN THIS ZONE...SEVERAL SUPERCELL TSTMS CONTINUE
WITH RIGHT-MOVING MEMBERS EXPERIENCING 0-1KM SRH RANGING FROM 200
M2/S2 OVER SERN OK TO OVER 400 M2/S2 ACROSS NRN AR. STORMS IN THIS
REGION WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY
SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY IF THEY CAN REMAIN ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING FROM EXTREME SWRN MO SWWD INTO ECNTRL
OK AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO SLOSH BACK WEST IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
FARTHER W WITH TIME INTO CNTRL OK AFTER 06Z AS THE LLJ INCREASES AND
LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADS EWD. STRONGER INHIBITION ACROSS
CNTRL/NERN OK INTO SWRN MO SUGGESTS THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AS STORMS REMAIN ROOTED ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
..RACY.. 09/23/2006
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2019
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1047 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND WRN KY
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 790...793...
VALID 230347Z - 230545Z
AREA WIND PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE EXTREME AND FAVORABLE FOR ROTATION
WITHIN STORMS. ALTHOUGH STORMS ARE SOLIDIFYING INTO
CLUSTER/LINES...STRONG MESOCYCLONIC ROTATION WILL REMAIN LIKELY.
TORNADO THREAT REMAINS WITHIN RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL
AND SRN KY WHERE SURFACE AIR REMAINS UNSTABLE.
..JEWELL.. 09/23/2006
MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR THIS AREA - 23rd of September
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0410 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR...SE MO...KY...NRN TN
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 795...
VALID 230910Z - 231115Z
CONTINUE WW. RISK FOR TORNADOES COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
SOUTHERN MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS PORTION OF WW BY AROUND 12Z.
BULK OF CONVECTION OVER THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY IS BEGINNING
TO WEAKEN...AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK
AS SUPPORTING IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
SHIFTS INTO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL
ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ADVANCING ALONG THE
KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE BORDER INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NEXT FEW
HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT MAY BECOME CONFINED TO SOUTHERN
MISSOURI/NORTHERN ARKANSAS PORTIONS OF WATCH...WHERE STALLING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN/SHIFT NORTHWARD. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS PRIMARY DEVELOPING SURFACE WAVE ALONG UPSTREAM
FRONT SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OZARKS IN RESPONSE TO
SIGNIFICANT UPPER IMPULSE LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. RETURN OF 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS AHEAD OF
EVOLVING FRONTAL SQUALL LINE WILL PROBABLY CONTRIBUTE TO BOUNDARY
LAYER DESTABILIZATION BY/SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. THIS IS WHERE RISK
OF TORNADOES IN ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN...WITHIN
FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
..KERR.. 09/23/2006
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2022
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME NE TX...CNTRL/ERN AR...WRN TN...SE MO...SRN
IN...WRN KY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 231235Z - 231400Z
NEW WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED EAST OF WW 796 BY AROUND 14Z.
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
ARKANSAS IS MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE...FOR THE MOST PART
UNAFFECTED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. WEAKLY CAPPED MIXED LAYER CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG IS EVIDENT IN THE 12Z RAOB FROM LITTLE ROCK
...WITH FURTHER DESTABILIZATION LIKELY WITH DAYTIME HEATING. AIDED
BY UPPER FORCING AHEAD OF POSITIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
LIFTING EAST NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/
OZARK PLATEAU...FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF SQUALL LINE SHOULD
CONTINUE AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD THROUGH LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR BENEATH 50 TO 70
KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW AND 40 TO 50 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET...DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS ARKANSAS/SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...WESTERN KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE...POSSIBLY NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI THROUGH 17-18Z. ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN SQUALL LINE...PARTICULARLY
WHERE IT INTERSECTS OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS
THROUGH THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.
..KERR.. 09/23/2006
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2023
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1051 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN IL...WRN/MID TN...EXTREME
SERN OK...AR...SRN INDIANA...EXTREME SWRN OH...WRN-CENTRAL KY...NWRN
MS...MO BOOT-HEEL.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 796...797...
VALID 231551Z - 231745Z
CONTINUE WW 797 ALONG/AHEAD OF PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND...WHICH
SHOULD PRODUCE DAMAGING GUSTS...AS WELL AS A FEW TORNADOES
ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHO CIRCULATIONS.
POSSIBLE TORNADO WITH DAMAGE WAS REPORTED IN PAST 15 MINUTES IN
BALLARD COUNTY KY.
ANOTHER WW MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN 1-2 HOURS FARTHER E...ACROSS
PORTIONS KY/TN/MS. WITHIN AN HOUR...SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD CLEAR
REMAINDER WW 796...WHICH MAY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AT 15Z NEAR LINE FROM 35 SSE
CSV...25 SW BNA...40 NE MKL...10 SW PAH. CONVECTIVE LINE INTERSECTS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NEAR PAH. EXPECT THIS INTERSECTION POINT TO SHIFT
EWD OR ESEWD ACROSS SWRN KY AND NRN TN AS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
LIFTS/MIXES NWD AND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE BAND PROCEEDS EWD. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE...VORTICITY AND STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW SHOULD REMAIN
MAXIMIZED NEAR THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTION...AS MAY POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS AND TORNADOES WITH ASSOCIATED BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS.
LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FARTHER S IN WARM SECTOR WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE AS WELL THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING...WITH 0-1 KM SRH
RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG BOUNDARY TO AROUND 250 J/KG OVER
SRN AR AND NWRN MS.
TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WILL DIMINISH WITH NEWD EXTENT
FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- OVER NRN KY...SERN INDIANA AND SRN
OH...THROUGH ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. MODIFIED
RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC-BASED LIFTED PARCELS IF TEMPS
RISE INTO UPPER 70S F. HOWEVER THIS AREA WILL BE SLOW TO HEAT
DIABATICALLY AND TO DESTABILIZE IN BOUNDARY LAYER...UNDER THICK
CLOUD COVER STREAMING OFF CONTINUING CONVECTION FARTHER S AND SW.
..EDWARDS.. 09/23/2006
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2024
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CENTRAL/NRN KY...EXTREME S-CENTRAL/SERN
INDIANA...EXTREME SWRN OH.
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 231630Z - 231930Z
ISOLATED RAIN RATES 1-2 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED WITH TSTMS
DEVELOPING IN ELEVATED WAA REGIME AND MOVING NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF
THIS REGION THROUGH AT LEAST 20Z. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY RAIN
RATES NEAR 3 INCHES/HOUR DURING PASSAGE OF NRN PORTION OF
QUASI-LINEAR MCS...FROM W-E ACROSS THIS AREA.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ANALYZED FROM SERN TN WNWWD-- NEARLY BISECTING
TN ON DIAGONAL BEFORE INTERSECTING NRN END OF QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM OVER FAR WRN KY. THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NEWD TO INVOF TN/KY BORDER THROUGH NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS...WITH SOME SFC-BASED BUOYANCY POSSIBLE TO ITS N GIVEN
CLEARING/HEATING UNDERWAY ATTM OVER SRN KY. SFC DEW POINTS MAY RISE
INTO LOWER 70S AS THIS OCCURS. LARGE SCALE LOW LEVEL LIFT --
ESPECIALLY JUST ABOVE SFC -- WILL BE MAXIMIZED N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
IN REGIME CHARACTERIZED BY MAXIMIZED SFC PRESSURE FALLS AND STRONG
LOW LEVEL WAA. ENHANCED 850 MB HEIGHT GRADIENTS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EWD SLOWLY ACROSS THIS REGION...HELPING TO MAINTAIN 30-40 KT
SWLY LLJ AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT. PW -- NOW AROUND 1.5
INCHES PER GPS DATA -- MAY INCREASE TO NEARLY 2 INCHES GIVEN
UPSTREAM GPS READINGS AND MOISTURE CONTENT EVIDENT IN RAOBS AND RUC
SOUNDINGS FARTHER SW. MAIN MCS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG
FORCED ASCENT AND EFFICIENT PRECIP PRODUCTION...AND WILL CONTAIN
MOST INTENSE RAINFALL OVERALL.
..EDWARDS.. 09/23/2006
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2027
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0137 PM CDT SAT SEP 23 2006
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WRN/MIDDLE TN...ERN AR...NWRN AL...NRN MS.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 797...
VALID 231837Z - 232000Z
QUASI-LINEAR MCS NOW OVER NWRN TN AND AR IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING
EWD OUT OF WW 797 AND ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON...WITH OCCASIONAL DAMAGING GUSTS POSSIBLE. SVR POTENTIAL
WOULD BE MAXIMIZED WITH LEWP/BOW CIRCULATIONS...AND WITH ANY
DISCRETE/PERSISTENT STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY LIFTING
NEWD ACROSS NRN MID TN AND ERN TN. SFC FLOW HAS VEERED OVER MOST OF
WARM SECTOR DURING PAST FEW HOURS...GIVEN PREDOMINANCE OF PRESSURE
FALLS FARTHER NE...N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. RESULTANT SWLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...MINIMIZING DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SPEED
SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE. OKO PROFILER MODIFIED WITH PRE-STORM
MEM SFC WIND REFLECTS THIS TREND WELL. LONG AND NEARLY STRAIGHT
HODOGRAPH IS EVIDENT THROUGH LOW-MIDDLE LEVELS...AND ONLY 20-25 KT
0-6 KM SHEAR. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SOMEWHAT STRONGER FARTHER
W -- CLOSER TO MCS -- HOWEVER CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
REMAIN LARGELY LINEAR. MAIN EXCEPTION MAY BE ALONG PROGRESSIVE
INFLECTION POINT IN THIS COMPLEX -- INITIALLY EVIDENT WSW MEM OVER
AR...AND FCST TO PROPAGATE ENEWD THROUGH MEM AREA AND INVOF TN/MS
BORDER. SVR POTENTIAL MAY PEAK LOCALLY AT INFLECTION...WHERE LOW
LEVEL LIFT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY
DISCRETE CONVECTION -- FORMING GRADUALLY ATOP HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE
ROLLS OVER MS...MAY MOVE INTO ENVIRONMENT WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR
INCREASES WITH NWD EXTENT.
..EDWARDS.. 09/23/2006
A FEW OF THE DOZENS OF STORM REPORTS FROM MASSAC, BALLARD, McCRACKEN,
AND LIVINGSTON COUNTIES
1215 PM FLASH FLOOD PADUCAH 37.07N 88.64W
09/22/2006 MCCRACKEN KY NWS EMPLOYEE
WIDESPREAD STREET FLOODING IN PADUCAH...LONE OAK...AND
HENDRON AREA.
1239 PM FLASH FLOOD PALMA 36.96N 88.38W
09/22/2006 MARSHALL KY NWS EMPLOYEE
1243 PM FLASH FLOOD 1 E KEVIL 37.08N 88.87W
09/22/2006 MCCRACKEN KY NWS EMPLOYEE
FLOWING WATER 3 TO 4 INCHES DEEP ALONG HIGHWAY 60 BETWEEN
KEVIL AND HEATH WHERE THE 4 LANE BECOMES A 2 LANE.
0110 PM FLASH FLOOD PADUCAH 37.07N 88.64W
09/22/2006 MCCRACKEN KY EMERGENCY MNGR
CHAMPION CREEK AT HOUSER ROAD AND OLD MAYFIELD ROAD IS
OUT OF ITS BANK WITH 1 FOOT OF WATER OVER THE ROAD.
CROOKED CREEK IS OUT OF ITS BANKS AT BUCKNER LANE.
0318 PM HAIL LA CENTER 37.07N 88.97W
09/22/2006 E0.88 INCH BALLARD KY TRAINED SPOTTER
0330 PM TORNADO 1 E JOPPA 37.21N 88.83W
09/22/2006 MASSAC IL LAW ENFORCEMENT
FOLLOW UP REPORT - POWER LINES DOWN...TREES DOWN AND AN
OUTBUILDING DESTROYED.
0335 PM TORNADO 6 NE METROPOLIS 37.21N 88.63W
09/22/2006 MASSAC IL LAW ENFORCEMENT
FOLLOW UP - TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN ON ROSEBUD RD, MT.
MISSION RD AND MACEDONIA CHURCH RD... 2 INJURIES KNOWN AT
THIS TIME...NUMEROUS HOUSES DAMAGED OR
DESTROYED...TRAILOR HOMES DESTROYED...TREES AND POWER
LINES DOWN AND NUMEROUS VEHICLES DAMAGED AND OVERTURNED.
0352 PM TORNADO 2 E METROPOLIS 37.15N 88.68W
09/22/2006 MASSAC IL TRAINED SPOTTER
0352 PM TORNADO 2 E METROPOLIS 37.15N 88.68W
09/22/2006 MASSAC IL TRAINED SPOTTER
THE TORNADO WAS SPOTTED NEAR VEECHES ILLINOIS CLOSE TO
THE NEW SHAWNEE COMMUNITY COLLEGE.
0415 PM TORNADO BAYOU 37.24N 88.47W
09/22/2006 LIVINGSTON KY EMERGENCY MNGR
FOLLOW UP REPORT - PRELIMINARY SURVEY HAS A TORNADO PATH
OF 1/2 TO 1 MILES WIDE AND 5 MILES LONG. STARTED AT BAYOU
KY TO HAMPTON KY...POWER LINES DOWN...HOUSES DAMAGED BUT
NO INJURIES REPORTED...NUMEROUS TREE LIMBS DOWN...
0909 PM TSTM WND DMG BARLOW 37.05N 89.05W
09/22/2006 BALLARD KY TRAINED SPOTTER
NUMEROUS TREES DOWN IN BARLOW
0930 PM TSTM WND DMG LA CENTER 37.07N 88.97W
09/22/2006 BALLARD KY LAW ENFORCEMENT
FOLLOW UP REPORT - HOUSES DAMAGED...SECURITY LIGHTS
RIPPED OFF POLES...POWER LINES DOWN...NUMEROUS TREES DOWN
AND TRAILERS OVER TURNED. THIS DAMAGE OCCURRED IN SOUTH
LA CENTER IN THE HINKLEVILLE AREA...ASLO IN BARLOW...MANY
ROADS ARE BLOCKED BY THE DEBRIS.
0930 PM TSTM WND DMG BARLOW 37.05N 89.05W
09/22/2006 BALLARD KY TRAINED SPOTTER
NUMEROUS TREES DOWN
0934 PM TSTM WND DMG LA CENTER 37.07N 88.97W
09/22/2006 BALLARD KY LAW ENFORCEMENT
TREES DOWN WITH 1 TREE FALLING ACROSS A HOUSE.
0940 PM TSTM WND DMG HIGH POINT 37.11N 88.72W
09/22/2006 MCCRACKEN KY EMERGENCY MNGR
AT LEAST 50 TREES DOWN DUE TO MICROBURST.
0942 PM TSTM WND DMG WEST PADUCAH 37.08N 88.74W
09/22/2006 MCCRACKEN KY TRAINED SPOTTER
LARGE LIMBS DOWN ACROSS HWY 62 NEAR BARKLEY REGIONAL
AIRPORT IN WEST PADUCAH.
1041 PM FLASH FLOOD CALVERT CITY 37.03N 88.35W
09/22/2006 MARSHALL KY TRAINED SPOTTER
FLOODING REPORTED ACROSS NUMEROUS STREETS IN CALVERT
CITY.
1052 PM HAIL BENTON 36.85N 88.36W
09/22/2006 E0.75 INCH MARSHALL KY TRAINED SPOTTER
1131 PM FLASH FLOOD HARDIN 36.76N 88.30W
09/22/2006 MARSHALL KY TRAINED SPOTTER
3 INCEHS OF WATER OVER RAODWAY CLOSE TO THE HILLDALE
APARTMENTS.
1133 PM TSTM WND DMG HARVEY 36.81N 88.42W
09/22/2006 MARSHALL KY TRAINED SPOTTER
0104 AM FLASH FLOOD BENTON 36.85N 88.36W
09/23/2006 MARSHALL KY TRAINED SPOTTER
AT 1510 MAIN STREET IN BENTON WAS FLOODED AND OCCUPANTS
WERE BEING EVACUATED.
0105 AM FLASH FLOOD 5 W REIDLAND 37.01N 88.62W
09/23/2006 MCCRACKEN KY EMERGENCY MNGR
PORTION OF OAKS ROAD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF SHEMWELL
LANE WAS WASHED OUT AND A 20 FT BY 12 FT SECTION CAVED
IN.
1030 AM TSTM WND DMG OSCAR 37.14N 89.03W
09/23/2006
BALLARD KY EMERGENCY MNGR
ROOF OFF HOUSE. BARN IN ROAD. NEAR 1767 TURNER LANDING
RD.
Storm Chaser Mike Deason Photographs...
Blount County, Alabama
6:42Pm Central, east of Trafford, AL
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