EasternUSwx Thread - ongoing conversation concerning the 2008 season.
Three risk categories (SLGT, MDT, and HIGH) are used to symbolize the coverage and intensity of the expected severe weather threat.
You can read more on this topic by visiting
this web site.
A SLGT risk implies well-organized severe thunderstorms are expected but
in small numbers and/or low coverage. Within a slight risk area, 5-29
reports of 3/4 inch of larger hail, and/or 5-29 reports of damaging wind
gusts, and/or 3-5 tornadoes.
MDT risks imply a greater concentration of severe thunderstorms, and in
most situations, greater magnitude of severe weather. Within a moderate
risk area, at least 30 reports of hail 1 inch or larger, or 6-19
tornadoes, or numerous wind events (at least 30 reports that likely
would be associated with a squall line, bow echo or derecho).
The HIGH risk implies that a major severe weather outbreak is expected,
with great coverage of severe weather and enhanced likelihood of extreme
severe (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind
events). Within a high risk area, expect at least 20 tornadoes, with at
least 2 of them rated EF3+, or an extreme derecho causing widespread
wind damage, with numerous higher end wind events (80+ mph) and
structural damage reports.
The report criteria for each of category are valid for an area
approximately the size of Oklahoma without the panhandle, or about
50,000 square miles. As the size of the risk area increases (decreases)
from 50,000 square miles, the expected severe weather numbers would
increase (decrease) proportionally.
Special thanks to Joe Steinfeld for merging the outlook with the damage reports. THANK YOU to the Storm Prediction Center, NOAA, NCEP, NWS Offices, and others who help protect and save lives during severe weather season.
REMEMBER an outlook is more than just a circle or box. There
are probabilities that go along with each event. The probabilities
can be more important than the "zoned" area itself. Keep this in
mind when judging the success of an outlooked area.
Please email me for corrections of comments...Beau Dodson
January 10, 2008
This was an upgrade to moderate at 16:30z
Issued by HALES -
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January 10, 2008
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January 29, 2008
This was an upgrade to a moderate risk at 16:30z
January 29, 2008
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February 5, 2008
This was an upgrade to high at 13Z - expanded at 16:30z
Issued by THOMPSON -
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Issued by THOMPSON -
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February 05, 2008
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February 16, 2008
February 16, 2008
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March 3, 2008
March 03, 2008
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March 4. 2008
This was an upgrade to a moderate risk at 13:00z
March 04, 2008
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March 15, 2008
Upgraded to a high risk at 20:00z
Issued by HALES -
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March 15, 2008
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March 18, 2008
March 18, 2008 PDS Box - No moderate or high risk
Issued by HALES -
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March 18, 2008
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Issued by HALES -
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March 18, 2008
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March 31, 2008
March 31, 2008
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April 03, 2008
April 3, 2008
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April 7, 2008
Upgraded to a moderate risk at 20:00z
Issued by HALES -
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April 07, 2008
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April 9, 2008
Issued by HALES -
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Issued by HALES -
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April 09, 2008
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April 10, 2008
April 10, 2008
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April 23, 2008
April 24, 2008
May 1, 2008
May 2, 2008
May 6, 2008
May 7, 2008
May 10, 2008
Issued By CARBIN -
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Issued By EVANS -
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May 11, 2008
May 13, 2008
May 22, 2008
Issued by IMY -
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May 23, 2008
Issued by HALES -
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Issued by CORFIDI -
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May 25, 2008
Issued by HALES -
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Issued by HALES -
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May 26, 2008
May 29, 2008
Issued by HALES -
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May 30, 2008
May 31, 2008
June 01, 2008
June 02, 2008
June 03, 2008
June 04, 2008
June 05, 2008
Issued By Hart
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(normal graphic was missing)
Issued By Hart
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Issued By Hales
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Issued By Hales
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June 07, 2008
June 10, 2008
June 11, 2008
June 15, 2008
Issued By Hales
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Issued By Hales
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June 16, 2008
June 26, 2008
June 28, 2008
Some notable outbreaks that were slight risk
January 07, 2008
January 7, 2008 PDS Box -
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- No moderate or high risk
Issued by CORFIDI
January 07, 2008
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January 08, 2008
February 12, 2008
February 17, 2008
March 07, 2008
March 08, 2008
March 14, 2008
March 27, 2008
April 04, 2008
April 11, 2008
April 28, 2008
May 08, 2008
May 20, 2008
